In 2025, Saudi Arabia led a significant shift in OPEC+ policy, announcing consecutive increases in oil production totaling 411,000 barrels per day in April and June. This decision comes at a time of weakening global demand, resulting in a sharp drop in oil prices, with Brent hitting four-year lows below $60 per barrel. ( O.Económico )
Saudi Arabia’s Motivations
The Saudi initiative aims to discipline OPEC+ members that have exceeded their production quotas, such as Iraq and Kazakhstan. In addition, it seeks to regain market share lost to independent producers, such as the United States. This strategy reflects a shift in focus from sustaining high prices to prioritizing volume and market share. ( CNN Brasil , O.Económico )
Impacts on Russia
Russia, the co-leader of OPEC+, is facing challenges from falling oil prices, one of its main sources of revenue. The drop in prices directly affects its economy, which is already under pressure from international sanctions and geopolitical conflicts. Analysts point out that the Saudi strategy could be seen as a way to put economic pressure on Moscow, exacerbating its financial difficulties. ( O.Económico )
Consequences for the Global Market
Saudi Arabia’s decision has raised concerns about a potential oversupply in the global market. With demand still weakened by trade tensions and an economic slowdown, increased production could lead to a glut of oil, further pushing up prices and hurting investment in the sector, especially in high-cost projects.
Future Perspectives
The continuation of this policy of increasing production will depend on the response of other OPEC+ members and the evolution of global demand. If the Saudi strategy results in market share gains without severely compromising prices, it could consolidate its dominant position. However, there are risks of fragmentation within OPEC+ and of prolonged negative impacts on prices, affecting oil-dependent economies such as Russia. ( CNN Brasil )
In short, Saudi Arabia is taking an aggressive approach to strengthening its leadership in the oil market, with significant implications for Russia and the global balance of oil supply and demand.
